Tuesday NJ weather: One more nice, warm day then big, wet changes
The Bottom Line
The record-breaking broken-record forecast continues! For one more day, at least. A strong cold front will combine with tropical moisture to drive in soaking rain from Wednesday to Thursday. And then temperatures take a tumble — it's going to feel much more November-ish by the start of the weekend.
Same story, different day. Morning fog is pretty thick in spots, with visibility at/below a quarter-mile. It looks like the thickest fog is located in central NJ. Fog should mix out around the 9 and 10 o'clock hour.
And then we'll have another nice, warm day — the last of this particular stretch. Mostly to partly sunny skies, with highs 70 to 75 degrees. Record highs for Tuesday are 73 at Newark and Trenton, and 76 at Atlantic City. It will be very close — at the very least, we're facing our 6th day in a row of 70+ degree temperatures. In November!
Tuesday night really won't be that cool, thanks to increased humidity in the air. Look for lows around 60. Fog is likely and sprinkles are possible.
1,300 miles southwest of New Jersey, Tropical Storm Eta is sitting and spinning. (Literally, as of 4 a.m. Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center reports its movement as "Stationary".) Eta will not directly hit New Jersey, but it will be an important element of our Wednesday-Thursday forecast.
A strong cold front will combine with Eta's tropical moisture to induce rain — eventually. Wednesday will start off just cloudy and mild. High temperatures will aim for the lower 70s, still unseasonably warm.
Model consensus now firmly shows first raindrops in the Wednesday afternoon time frame. Pockets of steady to heavy rain are likely through late Wednesday evening. And then we'll catch a lull in the rainfall action Wednesday night — but oh, the wet weather ain't done yet.
More rain, from morning through sometime in the afternoon. Once again, that rainfall will probably be heavy at times. Rainfall totals will most likely settle between 1 and 2 inches across most of the state. Healthy, but not extreme. However, some models are painting areas of multiple inches of rainfall — 3 to 5 inches. That would easily cause significant flooding and ponding issues. It's all about where the downpours and heaviest rain bands set up. South Jersey will be under the gun for the highest totals in the state. We'll have to plan for the worst and hope for the best with this one.
The other important element here is the introduction of cooler air. The cold front itself — the leading edge of cooler air — will pass across New Jersey Thursday morning. While we'll probably see temperatures near 60 early Thursday, thermometers will slowly slide downward through the 50s in the afternoon.
As we dry out and clear out, it's going to feel much more November-ish. Peeks of sunshine will be nice. And highs in the upper 50s will be par for the course for this time of year. Just very different from our recent November warm streak.
Saturday & Beyond
I suspect Saturday will be the coolest day of the week, with highs only in the lower 50s across the state. Cooler than normal, but no other big complaints. It should be dry, with a mix of sun and clouds.
The forecast for Sunday-Monday has been a bit muddle, as our next cold front approaches. The latest model guidance shows a dry Sunday with seasonable highs in the upper 50s, then a wet Monday morning with temperatures tumbling from the 60s.
And then our weather turns dead silent again, as strong high pressure dominates the middle of November. While I doubt widespread 70s will return, the long-range forecast looks generally dry and pleasant through the first part of Thanksgiving week.