The Bottom Line

Tuesday is going to be the bottom of the barrel, the coldest and most "wintry" day of the week. Flakes will fly around New Jersey during the daytime hours, but no travel issues or significant accumulation is expected.

As we dive into December, a brief warmup will take hold. But it won't last long, as cold and blustery weather returns by the weekend.

We will talk about additional rain/snow showers in the forecast. But there are no major storm systems on the horizon.

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Tuesday

The main driver of Tuesday's weather will be a weak clipper system diving out of the Great Lakes, tracking right over New Jersey. Parts of Michigan and northern New York State are expecting 3+ inches of fresh snow.

But that system is really falling apart. In addition, snowflakes and raindrops will have to battle some very dry air in our atmosphere. So don't expect much here — for most of NJ, I expect only flurries and sprinkles (at the most). There's an outside chance of a dusting or coating on cold surfaces in northwestern New Jersey. But that's it — no travel issues whatsoever.

Meanwhile, that fizzling storm system will drag thick clouds into our sky. So it will be a mostly cloudy day. And pretty cold too, with highs only reaching the lower to mid 40s. Definitely a wintry chill in the air all day.

Even though clouds will break apart somewhat Tuesday night, we'll have enough of a "blanket" overhead to prevent temperatures from crashing again. It won't be as cold as Monday night, and we should avoid a widespread hard freeze. Low temperatures will average mid 30s.

Wednesday

A little better, although temperatures will still end up shy of seasonal normals. Look for partly sunny skies with highs in the mid 40s.

A quick round of showers will clip southern New Jersey Wednesday evening. Probably just rain.

Thursday

A one day warmup! High temps will pop into the mid 50s on Thursday. We may even hit 60+ in South Jersey. Our one and only trip into "above normal" temperatures of the week.

It won't be a perfect day, as skies will be mostly cloudy to overcast. Although it does look mainly dry, another batch of showers will clip northern New Jersey late-day Thursday (afternoon to evening). Again, probably just rain.

Friday & Beyond

Back to blustery. Colder air returns on Friday, although it doesn't look like an earth-shattering, teeth-chattering "arctic blast".

Highs will end up about 10 degrees cooler, in the mid 40s or so. Wind gusts over 20 mph will remind you it's cold. It will turn sunny and dry.

We'll keep below-normal temperatures through the weekend, with sun and clouds and 40s for both Saturday and Sunday.

Our next substantial storm system is still modeled to arrive around Monday, a full six days away. Precipitation type and intensity will be very much tied into the exact storm track and (especially) temperatures. So for now, we declare it "worth watching" and wait to put more pieces in place once the forecast becomes more certain.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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