Thursday NJ weather: Chilly start, sunny and fall-like afternoon
I have to admit, I was this close to turning on the heat in my car this morning. We're starting off this Thursday morning with temperatures in the 30s in far NW NJ, in the 40s across much of the state, and in the 50s in urban and coastal areas. It is New Jersey's coolest morning since May 15 (Newark) and June 4 (Trenton and Atlantic City).
Overall, your Thursday looks fantastically fall-like. We'll warm to the lower 70s Thursday afternoon — that's a degree or two warmer than Wednesday, and still a few degrees below-normal for mid-September. Skies will be crystal clear, and we won't see a drop of rain.
A high risk of rip currents and rough surf continues for the Jersey Shore on Thursday. Ocean wave heights will be as high as 7 feet, for the second day in a row.
Thursday night will probably end up just about as chilly as Wednesday night, thanks to that perfect recipe for "radiational cooling" — clear skies, calm winds, dry air. I expect to see scattered 30s (higher elevations), widespread 40s, and a few 50s (cities and coast) on the temperature map overnight.
As our dome of high pressure shifts slightly, we'll have a change in wind direction for Friday. Your weather vane will flip from northeasterly to westerly. Don't get me wrong — I wouldn't even consider it "breezy" with top sustained wind speeds of 5 to 15 mph on Friday. However, that change will allow for a warmup to kick in.
Thermometers on Friday should reach the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. A beautiful mid-September day, as we keep the sunshine and dry weather going.
And the forecast for the final weekend of summer looks great too! Both days will feature sunshine, mixed with clouds. Both days will see high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. (Sunday probably a degree or two warmer than Saturday.) And both days will be bone-dry.
Our next storm system, a cold front, will arrive sometime on Monday. I'm dismayed to still see poor model agreement. The GFS scenario shows clouds and scattered rain for most of Monday, with cooler temperatures in the 70s. However, the Euro solution holds off any rain in NJ until Monday night, allowing for one more day in the 80s. I'm leaning toward the earlier, cloudier, cooler GFS forecast for now.
Temps will get knocked back into the 70s for Tuesday and Wednesday next week. I'm still not seeing any major storm systems aiming for New Jersey through the rest of September.
Of course, we're still watching the tropics carefully. Major Hurricane Humberto has now passed Bermuda and is rapidly moving toward the cooler waters of the northern Atlantic Ocean. Tropical Depression Imelda is still bringing drenching rains to eastern Texas. And Tropical Storm Jerry is still churning through the tropical Atlantic, about 2,000 miles southeast of New Jersey. Tropical storm watches have been issued for the northern Leeward Islands. Forecast model consensus still curves Jerry to the north before reaching the Bahamas — good news for the U.S. East Coast, potentially bad news again for Bermuda.