Scattered clouds and 40s Tuesday, still a weekend storm chance
As we count down the final days of January, we're also clawing out of the dead of winter — the coldest period of the year, on average. Tuesday's normal high temperature at Newark is 39 degrees — that number will continue climbing slowly through mid-July (86 degrees).
Our generally quiet weather will continue Tuesday. There are some pesky clouds hanging in the sky Tuesday morning, so temperatures have not dropped quite as much as I expected — thermometers are hovering in the mid to upper 30s. We should see some good sunshine by Tuesday afternoon, helping temperatures ease into the lower to mid 40s. We'll probably end up a couple of degrees cooler than Monday.
The HRRR model does show a little sprinkle in South Jersey Tuesday evening, very isolated and very light. It is the lone model showing that solution, so I'd give that raindrop chance a slight chance at best.
Look for mainly clear skies and pretty cold temperatures Tuesday night. Overnight lows should end up close to 30 degrees.
Wednesday will bring more bright, sunny weather to the Garden State. It will be a dry and seasonable day, with high temperatures around the lower 40s.
Thursday, however, will be mostly cloudy to overcast, thanks in part to a light on-shore flow (northeasterly wind). As a result, it will look greyer and feel cooler. Highs across the northern half of the state could get stuck in the upper 30s. Temps should top out closer to 40 degrees in South Jersey on Thursday afternoon.
One more quiet day in the forecast for Friday, with early sunshine giving way to clouds as the day goes on. High temperatures will pop into the mid to upper 40s thanks to a warming southwesterly breeze.
The big story — and the big question mark — in this forecast comes this weekend. More specifically, Saturday. This is a coastal storm system setup, which is always rather precarious — a wiggle of just a few miles could be the difference between snow and no. Forecast models have been waffling about a hit vs. a miss for New Jersey over the past several days.
And the latest model guidance is a split decision too. The GFS paints a snowy scene for northern and western New Jersey (6-ish inches a possibility?) with a rain-to-snow situation closer to the coast. Meanwhile, the Euro shows a miss for the Jersey Shore (but not by much). Call it a 50/50 coin flip.
Usually, I don't start talking about the weekend forecast on the radio until Wednesday morning. So, given the high uncertainty, I'm in no big hurry to jump ahead of the science here and make a blind guess at this forecast.
Nothing? We'll all continue watching and waiting for the pieces to come together. Once better consensus emerges and we have better resolution on what's likely coming our way, you'll be the first to know.