NJ weather: Three days of solid sunshine, warming up this weekend
I got nothing! Although we're battling cold air Friday, a nice warmup takes over the forecast this weekend. As the headline of this post suggests, we'll enjoy three days of near-perfect sunshine. Our next storm system — heck, our next cloud — won't arrive until Monday.
Temperatures on this Friday morning have sunk into the teens and 20s across most of the state. An occasional light breeze is pushing the wind chill further into the teens. So it's definitely a "bundle up" kind of day — I opted for the heavier coat, hat, and gloves this morning.
Highs Friday afternoon will be limited to the mid 30s. Similar to Thursday, but with one big exception — bright, blue, sunny skies! Our air is bone-dry (Chap Stick alert!) and our weather will be dry and quiet too.
Friday night will be chilly too, although overall temperatures should end up a few degrees warmer than Thursday night. My forecast puts low temperatures ranging from 15 degrees (northwest) to 24 degrees (urban and coast).
As bright sunshine continues Saturday, high temperatures will bump into the upper 40s. And just like that, we swing from about 10 degree below normal to 5 degrees above.
Sunday looks mild and mostly sunny. (In other words, you might see a stray cloud.) Highs will bump into the mild lower 50s.
And then mid 50s are expected on Monday. Latest model guidance suggests we'll salvage the daytime hours on Monday with dry weather. But our next storm system is set to arrive Monday night, with rain showers spreading throughout the Garden State.
Most of Tuesday looks wet, with periods of rain through about mid-afternoon amidst temperatures still in the 50s.
Beyond that, the forecast turns hazy. Another storm system is modeled for the Wednesday-Thursday time frame. A few days ago, it looked like colder air could lead to a wintry component for this one. But the latest guidance trends warmer and therefore just wet. I wouldn't rule out another shift, since it's still 5-6 days away. But I highly doubt we're going to see any substantial snow in New Jersey through the end of February.
In fact, both the GFS and European models paint a non-snowy situation all the way through the first week of March. Now, it's important to note that such long-term predictions are worse than a coin flip and than climatology (i.e. "just predicting normal"). But still, I am NOT seeing any big pattern change that would lead to an active, snowy March at this time.
Have a great weekend! Enjoy the sunshine!