The Bottom Line
The progression of our latest storm system on Tuesday night was pretty wild. Sussex County, New Jersey picked up the season's first inch of snow. Meanwhile, thermometers soared to 60 degrees along the Jersey Shore.
Wednesday morning conditions range from damp to wet across the Garden State. Final raindrops are coming up around mid-morning, with drier weather and brighter skies prevailing through the afternoon. It's not saying much, but this will be the warmest day of the week.
We are about to enter a very consistent atmospheric pattern. That will lead to very consistent weather conditions for the foreseeable future (a week at least). The big bullet points here: Cooler than normal temperatures, chilly breezes, and almost totally dry weather.
The coastal storm system that soaked New Jersey overnight is departing. As of this writing (6 a.m.), showers and drizzle are hanging over northern and central New Jersey. It looks like South Jersey is already done with the rain.
Final raindrops will exit NJ around 8 or 9 a.m. Wednesday. Then skies will start to clear. It's unclear whether we'll see perfect blue skies and sunshine Wednesday afternoon, or whether decaying convection to the west will introduce some clouds. The rest of the day will be dry. And breezy, with west-northwest gusts above 20 miles per hour.
Temperatures are tricky Wednesday too. Some locations, especially south and coast, have already hit the "high" temperature for this calendar day. I think thermometers will settle around 50 degrees in the afternoon. There is a lot of "give and take" in that number though — it will be cooler to the northwest and potentially warmer to the southeast.
Under mainly clear skies, temperatures Wednesday night will be pretty cold. Low temps will average lower 30s. I suspect non-coastal and non-urban areas will experience a light freeze. 'Tis the season.
Again, the forecast is full of consistencies. Very similar days with similar December-ish (and even January-ish) weather.
Thursday will be mostly sunny. And still breezy. I can't rule out a flurry in North Jersey. (Maybe even an outright snow shower or snow squall, depending on the exact wind direction and available moisture.)
High temperatures will only reach the lower to mid 40s Thursday afternoon. That is on the order of 10 to 15 degrees below normal for mid-November.
Friday will also be full of sunshine and chilly breezes. Once again, the forecast puts highs no better than the lower to mid 40s.
Believe it or not, the weekend turns a notch colder still. Morning low temperatures will potentially bottom out in the 20s. Afternoon highs will struggle to pass 40 degrees.
Amid the chilly temps, Saturday will be a dry day with periods of sun and clouds.
Sunday & Beyond
Originally, it looked like Sunday would be a warmer day. But now I'm not so sure. Sunny, breezy, and 40s — sound familiar?
A reinforcing shot of cold air early next week will keep the chilly weather around.
If you're looking for more seasonable temperatures, you'll probably have to wait until about Thanksgiving. That's when we could see 50s and 60s return to the thermometer. Our next substantial chance of rain also holds off until the holiday weekend — most likely timing for now has first raindrops arriving on Black Friday.