The Bottom Line

Happy Cyber Monday! As we prepare to close-out November and kick-off December, there is indeed a resounding theme in New Jersey's weather forecast. Quiet, chilly weather. For the foreseeable future, we'll see far more days with high temperatures in the 40s than in the seasonable 50s.

There will be some clouds and breeze, raindrops and snowflakes to watch. But our next threat of any kind of substantial storm system is almost a week away.

It is worth mentioning, by the way, that we had "record snowfall" over the weekend! Newark Airport (and a few other places) recorded 0.1" of snow accumulation early Sunday morning. That beat the Trace recorded on 11/28 in 1995. It also means New Jersey's snow season has officially started — oh boy!

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Monday

Cold and dry.

It's really not painfully, brutally, unseasonably cold to start the day. Most of the state didn't even freeze overnight, although early morning temperatures are primarily in the 30s. High temperatures will only reach the lower to mid 40s Monday afternoon, running about 6 or 7 degrees below normal for this time of year.

The sky will alternate between periods of sun and clouds. And a chilly northwest breeze will blow up to 20 mph, adding a little bite to the cold air. While there have been some flurries around Monday morning, the rest of the day looks dry. (As long as late-effect snow showers over NY state to fizzle before reaching NJ.)

Clear skies, dry air, and calm winds will present that classic setup for a cold Monday night. Low temperatures will dip into the upper 20s. I expect almost all of NJ to freeze (away from urban centers and the immediate coast).

Tuesday

Feeling rather wintry.

High temperatures will only reach the lower 40s — akin to a "decent" mid-winter day. In addition, a few waves of snow showers will swipe through New Jersey during Tuesday's daytime hours. They'll be very light. (If they even reach the ground, given our very dry air.) So I expect no accumulation and zero travel issues.

Skies will be mostly cloudy Tuesday, with only a light breeze.

Wednesday

A little better.

Partly sunny and dry. High temperatures will push into the upper 40s for most. Maybe a couple of 50+ degree readings along the southern coast. Still below normal, but we'll take it.

Some models do put some rain showers over NJ late-day Wednesday. I've opted for a dry forecast for now. But something to watch.

Thursday

The warmest day of the week.

Thursday will be our only trip into the (mid) 50s of the week, finally breaking our stretch of below-normal temps.

However, the relative warmth will come with clouds. And a chance of rain showers both early and late on Thursday too.

The Extended Forecast

Cooler air returns on a brisk northwesterly wind on Friday. It won't be a ferocious "arctic blast," but the change will be noticeable. That will put high temps back in the 40s through the first weekend of December.

Our next opportunity for a substantial storm system doesn't show up in model guidance until next Sunday-Monday-Tuesday. There's a lot of uncertainty that far out, with the GFS showing a soaking rain and the Euro depicting a more wintry coastal storm setup. For now, we wait and see — by midweek, we'll start to have a better idea of whether next week's storm will be "a big deal" or "a big dud".

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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