More summery weather ahead for NJ – but stay out of the ocean
Let's start with the latest on Hurricane Chris, now a pretty strong category 2 storm with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph. (That's just 6 mph below "major hurricane" criteria.) The storm will make its closest pass to New Jersey on Wednesday, about 300 miles to the southeast. As we've discussed all week, there's zero chance of weather issues for us. However, rough surf has already necessitated hundreds of rescues along the U.S. East Coast. A moderate risk of rip currents is posted once again for the entire Jersey Shore on Wednesday. (I'm a little surprised NWS didn't pop out a high risk, given 4+ foot waves.) Just stay out of the ocean for another couple of days, please?
Meanwhile, as expected, Tuesday evening's cold front fell into the "no big deal" category. A few light thunderstorms passed through northern New Jersey. And you can barely find the front on a map this morning.
Wednesday will certainly end up cooler than Tuesday, which saw high temperatures of 96 at EWR, 94 at TTN, and 96 at ACY. Under partly to mostly sunny skies, high temperatures Wednesday afternoon should reach the mid to upper 80s for most of NJ. I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of 90s. (Note: If Newark hits 90, it will be an "official" heat wave of 3 consecutive days of 90+ degrees.) Jersey Shore beaches will top out in the upper 70s. Just like Tuesday, humidity will be manageable. (In fact, I don't see anything resembling "steamy" or "oppressive" weather in the 7-day forecast.)
So it will be another nice, warm, summery day. Following along that "summer" vein, I just can't rule out a popup shower or thunderstorm at some point Wednesday afternoon or evening (i.e. during the hottest part of the day). No guarantee any raindrops ultimately fire — and, if they do, they'll be few and far between.
I'll call Wednesday night partly cloudy and seasonable, with lows in the mid to upper 60s.
As a dome of high pressure builds overhead, Thursday's forecast is looking pleasant. Skies should progress from more clouds to more sun throughout the day. There is one potential hiccup — a weak shortwave may produce some clouds, and maaaaaaybe a shower, but the threat is so slight, I'm keeping the forecast dry for now. Thursday afternoon's high temps should be in the lower 80s, the coolest day of the week.
Clouds build in slowly on Friday, as our weather stays dry and pleasant. High temperatures climb slightly into the mid 80s.
And the weekend is looking better than yesterday, although it's still a warmer, more humid, and potentially unsettled outlook. Both Saturday and Sunday look to feature partly to mostly cloudy skies and high temperatures generally between 85 and 90 degrees. (That's away from the ocean.) In addition, a few showers and thunderstorms will be possible, especially from late Saturday through early Sunday. But the weekend forecast is far from a washout and overall looks decent.
Things stay hot early next week with widespread lower 90s (and thus, another potential heat wave). Our next storm system of any substance is progged to arrive next Wednesday with both rain and a cooldown. But again, the forecast for the weekend and beyond is pretty low confidence at this point.