Another generally quiet weather week begins for NJ

Hello! After two and a half weeks of paternity leave, I am happy (although quite tired) to be back in front of the microphone and keyboard with you! Baby Nathan is wonderful — he's a great sleeper and a great eater, and that's all we can ask for.

And what do you know, I return to the weather center with another generally quiet weather week in the forecast. A weak disturbance is making a close fly-by to New Jersey on Monday. So there are a few flurries in the neighborhood Monday morning (although temperatures are just above the freezing mark). And a few models paint spotty rain showers over central and southern New Jersey Monday afternoon. Otherwise, periods of sun and clouds are expected throughout the day — overall, not bad.

You might feel an occasional breeze, as high temperatures end up in the mid 40s. That is certainly above normal for late January, and similar to Sunday.

Monday night will be chilly and partly cloudy. Low temperatures will sink to around 30 degrees by Tuesday morning.

Daily temperatures will slowly and subtly cool off as the week presses along. No big deal, but worth mentioning.

On Tuesday, skies will features scattered clouds and it will be a dry weather day. Temperatures will be seasonably cool, topping out in the lower 40s.

Cooler still for Wednesday, with a high near 40. Skies will be bright and sunny with light winds.

Expect about 40 degrees again for Thursday, with a mix of sun and clouds.

And Friday is looking uneventful too, with increasing clouds and mid 40s.

There has been a lot of chatter about a potential coastal storm system for next weekend. As you know, it is pointless to even look at a winter storm forecast until we're 5 to 7 days out. Now that we're in that time frame, both the GFS and Euro models agrees — this currently looks like a mostly miss for New Jersey.

However, it's still worth watching for two reasons. First, the forecast track could absolutely wiggle closer to the Jersey Shore again. That would obviously present a more impactful weather scenario. Second, we're still facing some showers for Saturday and Sunday — and yes, if it's cold enough, there could even be some wintry weather.

So, while we don't have any alarm bells to ring now, this is going to be our most significant weathermaker for the week. Stay tuned, winter lovers — February is on the way!

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.