As a strong coastal storm continues to stir up the Atlantic Ocean, moderate flooding is forecast for the next two high tide cycles: Monday evening and Tuesday morning.

Flooding in the south concourse area of Neptune Township (Neptune Township Police)
Flooding in the south concourse area of Neptune Township (Neptune Township Police)
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Ocean water inundated roads and low-lying areas in Monmouth, Ocean, and Atlantic counties early Monday morning. On roadways next to tidal waterways, the "usual spots" experienced flooding, which necessitated several road closures.

A massive area of low pressure over the middle of the Atlantic Ocean is the culprit for the flooding. Even though this system is moving away from New Jersey, the next two high tide cycles could still cause minor to moderate flooding.

Here’s a review of the latest surge model data for the three primary tide gauges along the Jersey Shore. All heights refer to the “Mean Lower Low Water” (MLLW) mark, measured in feet.

Sandy Hook, Monmouth County

Tide observations and forecast for Sandy Hook, N.J. (NOAA / NWS)
Tide observations and forecast for Sandy Hook, N.J. (NOAA / NWS)
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The observed high tide Monday morning (red line) at Sandy Hook was 8.12 feet at 7:18 a.m. Monday night's high tide (black line) occurs at 7:42 p.m. and is expected to have a similar crest at 8.16 feet. Tuesday morning’s high tide will occur at 8:03 a.m. and is expected to peak around 8.18 feet. This tide level is considered moderate flooding and would be the 21st highest tide crest since records at Sandy Hook began in 1910.
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Atlantic City, Atlantic County

Tide observations and forecast for Atlantic City, N.J. (NOAA / NWS)
Tide observations and forecast for Atlantic City, N.J. (NOAA / NWS)
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The observed high tide Monday morning (red line) at Atlantic City was 7.17 feet at 6:57 a.m. Monday night's high tide (black line) occurs at 7:20 p.m. and is expected to have a lower crest at 6.67 feet. Tuesday morning’s high tide will occur at 7:42 a.m. and is expected to peak around 7.58 feet. This tide level is considered minor to moderate flooding and would be the 14th highest tide crest since records at Atlantic City began in 1911.

Cape May, Cape May County

Tide observations and forecast for Cape May, N.J. (NOAA / NWS)
Tide observations and forecast for Cape May, N.J. (NOAA / NWS)
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The observed high tide Monday morning (red line) at Cape May was 7.87 feet at 8:06 a.m. Monday night's high tide (black line) occurs at 8:27 p.m. and is expected to have a slightly lower crest at 7.85 feet. Tuesday morning’s high tide will occur at 8:52 a.m. and is expected to peak around 8.65 feet. This tide level is considered moderate flooding and would be the 5th highest tide crest since records at Cape May began in 1965.

Ocean Waves

Forecast wave heights as of Monday afternoon, according to the Wave Watch 3 model. 8 to 12 foot peak waves are modeled just off the New Jersey coast. (WeatherBell Analytics)
Forecast wave heights as of Monday afternoon, according to the Wave Watch 3 model. 8 to 12 foot peak waves are modeled just off the New Jersey coast. (WeatherBell Analytics)
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In addition to the coastal flooding threat, the ocean remains angry. Peak wave heights of 8 to 12 feet will continue to batter beaches along the Jersey Shore, causing some beach erosion. These waves will subside as the coastal storm continues to pull away from the coast.

Dan Zarrow is the Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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