Monday and Tuesday will be ‘carry the umbrella’ days for NJ
Another round of unsettled, occasionally wet, cloudy, and cool weather will take over the Garden State for most of the week.
June gloom isn't usually "a Jersey thing". The term refers to the almost-annual cloudy, cool weather that overtakes southern California every June, due to the influence of cool Pacific Ocean waters introducing eternally grey clouds and showers. While the atmospheric mechanics will be different for New Jersey, the effect will be the same: occasional rain, mostly cloudy skies, and below-normal temperatures.
Early Monday morning, a cluster of thunderstorms rolled across Central Jersey, bringing heavy rain and abundant lightning. (It woke me up and made my 2 a.m. commute rather difficult.) As of this writing, this batch of rain has moved off the Jersey coast and radar has become pretty quiet for the Monday morning commute. Roads are still wet, and there have been reports of light fog across the Garden State too.
This is a very complicated setup — a main storm system will hover well north of New Jersey, flinging several smaller disturbances our way over the next 48 hours (give or take). While there will be a break of dry weather for several hours Monday morning, periods rain will return to the forecast from midday through Monday afternoon. I don't want to pinpoint the timing and location of the rain too much, due to model differences and uncertainty. I will wager a bet that Monday looks like the wettest day of the week.
Despite the rain and clouds, temperatures should climb into the 70s for most of New Jersey by Monday afternoon.
Monday night will bring additional showers and thunderstorms. Again, it won't rain at all times, and it may not rain everywhere — in fact, the best chance for overnight rain will be in far northern and far southern NJ.
The unsettled forecast continues for Tuesday's, with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected. In addition, the influence of the raindrops and cloud cover will impact temperatures significantly. Temperatures won't go very far on Tuesday, rising from about 60 degrees in the morning to only the mid 60s later.
We can finally begin scaling back rain chances on Wednesday. The latest models actually paint a dry day, although I'm going to include a slight shower chance just in case. Meanwhile, Wednesday looks like the coolest day of the week, with continuing thick clouds high temperatures limited to the lower to mid 60s. That's about 15 degrees below normal for early June — maybe even cool enough to qualify as jacket weather?
Thursday's forecast includes a very important change — as high pressure approaches and our wind switches from north-northeast to south-southwest, skies will begin to clear and our weather will improve. Skies should be partly sunny on Thursday, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. Yes, still below normal. But it's an improvement.
Sunshine will be even more abundant by Friday, pushing high temperatures into the seasonable mid to upper 70s.
The warming trend should continue into the weekend, with 80s returning to Jersey thermometers for Saturday and especially Sunday. Models suggest a few passing showers may interrupt our Saturday, but Sunday looks good for now.