The Bottom Line

The effects of a cold front upon New Jersey will be very noticeable Thursday. Soaking rain will be with us through the afternoon. Meanwhile, cooler air will arrive on a stiff northerly breeze. Our weather turns much more November-ish in the coming days.

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Thursday

It's been raining in New Jersey since lunchtime Wednesday, and there's much more to come. Remember that this rain is being fueled by deep tropical moisture, stemming from Tropical Storm Eta. (Which, by the way, is making landfall along the Gulf coast of Florida Thursday morning.) It's not only soggy and sloppy, but also ridiculously sticky out there — it feels like a summer morning with temperatures in the 60s!

Let's do a quick "frequently asked questions" rundown to break down Thursday's soggy, changing forecast:

—When will the rain end? I think we'll start to see improvements, from west to east, Thursday afternoon. Rain won't completely exit New Jersey until late afternoon to early evening.

—How much more rain is expected? About a half-inch to an inch of additional rainfall is possible. (Note: We've already had over 3 inches of rainfall in SW NJ.)

—Biggest concern? Leaves. Not only are they incredibly slippery when wet, but they block storm drains. I've seen several reports of minor flooding as a result.

—Any wind? Not storm-driven. But our cold front will kick up a brisk northerly breeze, on the order of 20 mph. That will drive in cooler, drier air from late morning through the afternoon.

—What will temperatures do? Drop. While we're seeing mid 60s Thursday morning, thermometers will tumble to the lower 50s or so by sunset. You won't need a jacket early on, but you'll want it later.

—Will we dry out completely Thursday night? Not quite. Even as outright rain ends, I think it will still feel damp and raw. Cloudy, foggy, drizzly. And pretty chilly, as low dip into the upper 40s.

Friday

Tropical Storm Eta will make its closest pass to New Jersey early Friday morning. (But still well to our southeast.) Forecast models have been very consistent about a batch of rain from about 5 a.m. to 11 a.m. Friday. Then we'll catch peeks of sunshine through Friday afternoon. And it's going to feel much more November-ish, with highs limited to the mid 50s.

Saturday

Not bad, but definitely cool. Mostly sunny skies, with below-normal highs in the lower 50s. The NAM model puts a little shower over New Jersey Saturday evening, but I'm still maintaining a dry forecast.

Sunday

The warmer day of the weekend, as a return to southerly winds pushes high temperatures into the lower 60s for most. The daytime hours look great. However, our next storm system and next rain chance looks to arrive Sunday night.

Monday & Beyond

The timing of the rain Sunday night to early Monday morning is still a little shaky — we'll get a better handle on that soon. The raindrops are associated with yet another strong cold front, which will have a little bite to it. It's going to get pretty windy and blustery on Monday, with 35+ mph wind gusts and falling temperatures (again).

As a result of that influx of cold air, the middle of next week looks pretty chilly. Highs only in the 40s on Tuesday and Wednesday? Maybe even some snow showers around Tuesday morning? ('Tis the season!)

The longer-range forecast through next weekend looks quiet and generally dry. However, whether that will be quiet cold or quiet warm is unclear.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.