The Bottom Line

It is tough to think about the end of this streak of unseasonably warm and dry weather. But that transition is set to arrive midweek, with soaking rain and then cooler (not colder) temperatures.

Enter your number to get our free mobile app

Monday

We smashed record high temperatures this weekend! Widespread 70s, and even a few 80s on Sunday. It felt more like a late May or mid September day — a full 15 degrees above normal for early November. Wow.

The runaway warmth is set to continue Monday. Of course, having said that, we're off to a pretty chilly start — temperatures have fallen into the 40s away from the immediate coast. So start with sweaters, end with shorts — highs are forecast to hit mid 70s Monday afternoon. Record highs for 11/9 are 75 at Newark, 78 at Trenton, and 76 at Atlantic City. It will be close!

Sunny skies, dry weather, and barely a breeze.

Monday night will be clear, aside from patchy fog developing by morning. It'll be cool with lows around 50, give or take.

Tuesday

We face some subtle changes, as tropical moisture begins to increase our humidity. (That moisture stemming from Tropical Storm Eta, meandering in the eastern Gulf of Mexico this week.)

I've seen hints of patchy drizzle or an isolated shower, but I'm opting for another dry day. Under mostly to partly sunny skies, highs will still push into the lower 70s Tuesday afternoon. Nice.

Wednesday

The big transition day. Latest model guidance has shifted our eventual cold front a bit later. So I think we'll still come close to 70 degrees, even as it becomes cloudier and breezier. An isolated shower is possible through the first half of the day. But the resounding consensus forecast keeps steady rain away from New Jersey until mid Wednesday afternoon at the earliest. (More likely, it largely holds off until after sunset.)

Once rain arrives Wednesday night, we'll get soaked. Steady to heavy rain is likely to spread throughout New Jersey. If it really pours (and remember, tropical moisture is in play here), a stretch of the state could pick up 2+ inches of total rainfall.

Thursday

Rain will continue through at least the morning. But here's where forecast models really diverge. NAM and Euro keeps our weather wet all day, while the GFS clears out the rain by lunchtime Thursday. We'll see how this piece of the puzzle continues to develop.

In any case, the initial pool of cool air arriving Thursday won't be that cold. We'll probably be stuck in the 60s all day — still above seasonal norms.

Friday & Beyond

Both Friday and Saturday could feel a bit unsettled, but I'm favoring a dry and partially sunny forecast for now. High temperatures will decline from the lower 60s in Friday, to the more seasonable mid-upper 50s Saturday. We might be back into morning frost territory this weekend, especially in the coolest sectors of the state.

As it stands, our next batch of rain is scheduled to arrive on Sunday. (Again, fueled by Eta moisture.) We'll let Wednesday-Thursday play out before nailing down timing and rainfall totals of that one.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.