NJ weather: This could be our coldest week in over a decade

UPDATE... This article is outdated...

For the latest winter storm forecast information, please refer to my newest weather blog post.

Sunday's winter storm has come to an end, producing up to 17 inches of snow in New Jersey (Sussex County). At least one spot in every county in the state saw at least 6 inches of snow. Needless to say, this was indeed our most significant, impactful winter storm in a long time. And almost worthy of all the hype last week.

Now we look ahead to a brutally cold week — one of the coldest I can remember in a long time here in New Jersey. (By the numbers, this will be the first time since February 2015 we have had five days in a row with widespread single-digit low temperatures.) Temperatures will likely remain stuck below freezing continuously until February begins, sometime next week. In addition, there is still a storm system signal worth watching for next weekend. But hold the "hype train" — this one is far from a sure bet.

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Monday NJ weather: Cleaning up, staying cold

While a few flurries or a brief snow shower are possible on Monday, that is the only thing that will fall from the sky. We could really use a warmup to help with snow and ice melt — but unfortunately, that will not help any time soon. Barring that, sunshine would help — especially as blacktop surfaces (like roads) are able to soak in some of that radiation.

Expect clouds to start, then breaks of sun later on. It will turn breezy this afternoon too. High temperatures will only reach the mid 20s. Better than Sunday, but still freezing cold.

Monday night will be very cold, with a Cold Weather Advisory issued for most of New Jersey for the third time this week. With a refreshed arctic air mass, clearing skies, and fresh snowpack, low temperatures will dip to around 5 to 10 degrees overnight. Wind chills will plunge below zero.

So we are back in "dangerous cold" territory. Remember, I do not use that term lightly. This is not "normal" New Jersey wintry chill — it is 20+ degrees below normal, and literally hazardous to human health. You have to bundle up and take care of yourself in these conditions. If not, you become more susceptible to hypothermia and frostbite.

Tuesday & Wednesday: Cold and quiet

Tuesday will be mostly sunny. But the biting breeze will continue. I can't rule out a flurry at some point, especially to the north. Highs will only reach the lower 20s. The dreaded wind chill will only reach about 10.

Wednesday will be partly sunny and cold, with highs again in the lower 20s.

Thursday & Friday: Even Colder

Believe it or not, Thursday gets even colder, with a morning low near zero. Afternoon highs are forecast to reach around the 20 degree mark. Expect a mix of sun and clouds.

And Friday will be similar to Thursday, with highs again no better than 20 degrees, under mixed cloud cover.

Next weekend: Really, Another Weekend Storm Threat?!

That brings us to next weekend, the turning point between January and February, when big question marks enter the forecast. For a while now, long-range models have sporadically thrown a storm system signal toward New Jersey around next weekend. At the moment, it is showing up again.

But there is zero agreement among the different models about how things may play out. The GFS model shows a coast-clipper storm, with the chance for a couple inches of snow on Sunday. Meanwhile, the European has a blockbuster snow storm plugged in for Saturday, with upwards of two feet of snow.

I don't buy either solution yet. Let me jump in front of the next "hype train" before it gets out of control — I am not sold on when, if, or what New Jersey could see from that weekend storm. Could it be something big? Sure. Could it be absolutely nothing at all? Yup.

You know how this works by now. We are in full "hold your horses" mode for now. When I know more, you will know more. When I have more to say, you will be the first to know. Period, full stop.

5 DAY FORECAST: New Jersey Weather Center