Be vigilant, NJ — Hurricane season prediction for 2024

⚠ Early forecasts say hurricane season should be very active

⚠ Forecasts can be downgraded ahead of June

⚠ Hurricane season runs through November

It's still early, but New Jersey's vulnerable coast and flood-prone communities never want to hear this: the Atlantic hurricane season is likely to be an explosive one in 2024.

An initial outlook released in April by Colorado State University calls for a "hyperactive" season, with activity well above the 1991-2020 average.

Specifically, the forecast estimates 23 named storms. The average is around 14.

CSU's forecast calls for 11 hurricanes, including five major hurricanes.

A wilder-than-normal season is being predicted by AccuWeather as well. Meteorologists are forecasting 20 to 25 named storms, including eight to 12 hurricanes.

Why do forecasters expect more storms?

The unpleasant predictions are based on record warm sea surface temperatures in the tropics and the likelihood of a shift from El Niño conditions to La Niña, which provides atmospheric conditions that are favorable for Atlantic tropical storm development (less wind shear, in particular).

Forecasts are generally updated as the region moves closer to its hurricane season, which typically launches in June.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration should release its initial outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season ahead of Memorial Day Weekend.

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State Climatologist Dave Robinson at Rutgers University said predictions can be downgraded ahead of or during hurricane season, but all variables right now suggest an active season.

Still, the outlook is not a prescription for destruction in the Garden State. The outlook can't tell residents and leaders when storms will brew, or where they'll go after they form.

"It doesn't guarantee anything, particularly when we're this far up the East Coast," Robinson said. "But I always say the more storms you have, the greater the probability you're going to be impacted by one or more of them, directly or indirectly."

When is hurricane season in New Jersey?

According to the New Jersey Office of Emergency Management, New Jersey's tropical storm activity typically hits between August and late October. The Atlantic hurricane season runs through November.

CSU's forecast says right now, there's a 34% that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the East Coast, including Florida. Typically, the odds are 21%.

Check out New Jersey's survival guide to be best prepared for tropical storms here.

"More people have to be attuned to what's going on, be it wind, waves, or rainfall," Robinson said. "We're getting better at that, but we still have a ways to go."

Dozens of people died in New Jersey when the remnants of Hurricane Ida pummeled the state with rain in September 2021.

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