Two days of pleasant weather for NJ, then two days of cold rain

The Bottom Line

Full disclosure: Sunday's forecast did not play out as expected. Oh boy, it was windy. But it turned out to be both warmer and cloudier than I expected. Not that either factor ruined the day — I was pleasantly surprised.

We will keep the nice weather going for Monday and Tuesday. And the wind will die down ... a little bit. A reinforcing cold front moved through overnight, which will keep wind speeds in the "breezy" category" through Monday afternoon. Enough to notice, but hopefully not a nuisance.

The first big weather story of the week will be a return of persistently "yucky" weather Wednesday and Thursday. It will be rainy, with about an inch or two of slow-and-steady rainfall. And it will be surprisingly cool, feeling more like March than May.

The other big weather story is the forecast for the upcoming Memorial Day Weekend. It will not be perfect, but I generally like what I see.

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Monday

Overall, a very nice way to start the week!

A wind will carry through the day, with occasional gusts to about 20 mph. That is squarely in the "breezy" category.

Sunshine will dominate the day, and we will stay completely dry.

Temperatures will rise from mostly 50s in the morning to the lower 70s in the afternoon.

Monday night stays quiet, although it might be chilly enough to need a jacket or sweatshirt. Look for clear skies, a calmer wind, and low temps averaging upper 40s across the state.

Tuesday

We will squeeze out one more great day Tuesday before rain chances return.

Most of the day still looks sunny, with high pressure still in the neighborhood. Clouds will start to increase by late afternoon.

High temperatures will end up slightly cooler, in the upper 60s or so. Because Tuesday will be less windy than Monday, the difference will probably be negligible.

Showers will probably creep in from the southwest late Tuesday night. That is just the appetizer of the rain to come.

Wednesday

Yes, I am happy to see another solid batch of rain — likely totaling an inch or two statewide. I am also pleased that there are no alarm bells to ring here for severe weather and flooding.

But this is going to be another period of inclement, miserable, truly "yucky" weather. In addition to raindrops, it is going to be overcast and cool — temperatures will not budge more than a few degrees for two straight days.

Expect periods of rain throughout Wednesday. I am not prepared to call it a total washout, as pockets of drier air could work in during the afternoon. (Especially to the south.)

Wednesday night stays wet and dreary too.

Temperatures for the duration will be stuck in the 50s. (And that's probably low to mid 50s, FYI.) Far North Jersey may only reach the 40s at best.

Thursday

More of the same. Rainy, cloudy, and really chilly. Temperatures will hover on either side of 50 degrees all day.

There is a good chance skies will brighten and rain will end through Thursday afternoon. So if you have some late-day activities that are not dependent on a puddle-free ground, you have a chance.

Friday & Beyond

This forecast is a big deal — the Memorial Day Weekend is just around the corner!

It is still a little early for specific details. But again, I do like what I see in general.

Friday and Saturday may stay on the cool side, with high temperatures limited to the 60s.

Sunday and Memorial Day Monday will probably be the picks of the holiday weekend, as temps recover to the 70s. Each day will feature at least partial sunshine.

The chance of a shower this weekend is not zero. But model guidance shows no widespread organized storm systems near New Jersey. So it would be isolated stuff only.

Again, it looks pretty good. (Way better than some of those wish-casters had predicted weeks in advance.) Fear not — as always, we will continue to refine and add detail to the MDW forecast as it gets closer.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.