NJ weather: Timeline of rain, wind, and mild temperatures
The Bottom Line
Our one and only storm system of the week has arrived. And, as we have discussed, it's really not a "winter storm" for New Jersey. Accompanied by warming temperatures, it's going to be another wet one. Between Thursday, Thursday night, and early Friday, we're going to pick up between a quarter-inch (south) and inch (north) of fresh rainfall.
That period of time will not be a total washout, but everyone in the Garden State will get wet. There could be some embedded thunderstorms, little downpours, and gusty winds along the way. Especially during the peak of the storm late Thursday night to early Friday morning.
Temperatures will tumble again behind the rain, leading to a chilly, dry, quiet weekend.
As I laid out previously, the impacts of this area of low pressure will play out in three parts.
The first part is here already, with spotty showers dampening much of NJ to start the morning. Temperatures are almost exclusively above the freezing mark, with the lone exception far NW NJ. So snowflakes, wintry mix, and potential slippery spots are pretty much non-existent going forward.
The first wave of showers will exit NJ around late morning. And then we'll catch a lull, with only clouds, drizzle, and fog around. Temperatures will warm into the 40s and then 50s this afternoon through this evening.
The "brunt" of the storm — the wettest, stormiest weather — will arrive after 6 p.m. Thursday evening. Bands of solid rain will push across New Jersey through about 8 a.m. Friday morning. Given the relative warmth (50s) and humidity in the air, there could be some convective activity. In other words, rumbles of thunder.
Also worth noting, winds are going to be screaming about a half-mile overhead Thursday night. Some of that will probably mix down to the surface. I'd expect regular gusts over 20 mph. Maybe a bit higher under perfect conditions. Just adding to the stormy, unsettled weather conditions.
Temperatures overnight will hold steady in the lower to mid 50s.
A day of transition, as storm system exits and colder, drier air returns
Rain will exit sometime Friday morning. Latest model guidance does show raindrops potentially lingering around as late as Noon. Skies will stay pretty cloudy, with substantial clearing holding off until right around sunset.
Meanwhile, temperatures will start the day in the 50s. But they won't stay there for long. As soon as rain ends, a cold front will introduce a brisk northwest wind and colder air. So we will see thermometers slide backwards into the lower to mid 40s by late Friday afternoon.
And temps will continue tanking Friday night. If skies become clear enough, we'll see a widespread freeze around 30 degrees by Saturday morning.
Back to boring weather. This weekend will feature bright skies, dry weather, and chilly temperatures.
Saturday morning should be bright and sunny, before some clouds creep along the coast in the afternoon. High temperatures will only reach about 40 degrees. But that is right on the normal high for mid January.
Mostly sunny and 40 to 45 degrees. A pretty typical January day.
The Extended Forecast
For next week, I'm seeing midday rain showers on Tuesday and then a stronger cold front closer to the weekend.
The long-term weather pattern still favors temperatures at or just above normal, and mainly rainmaker storm systems. We'll see if things change once we get to the last third of January.
Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.