NJ gas prices are on the move … and not in a good way

⚫ New Jersey gas prices are lower than where they were a year ago

⚫ Don't expect sub-$3 prices for long

⚫ NJ's gas tax is higher in 2025

Enjoy gas prices where they're at right now in New Jersey.

As of Thursday afternoon, according to AAA, the average price for a gallon of unleaded fuel was just under $2.99, about 7 cents higher than a week ago.

Prices at the pump are following a typical trend of creeping up after a holiday bottom-out. More recently, oil prices have rallied on some optimism over China's fiscal stimulus.

Prices right now are better than a year ago ($3.06 per gallon), but drivers in New Jersey can expect prices to head above $3 per gallon, and should not expect to see prices below $3 per gallon again until the fall or winter of 2025.

"Gas prices usually start the year rather low. They start to go up in February as the winter eases," Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy, told New Jersey 101.5.

In addition to market-driven hikes, New Jersey's gas tax increased by 2.6 cents per gallon at the start of 2025.

Rising gas prices

The anticipated rise can be attributed to rising demand, as well as maintenance occurring at refineries ahead of the summer driving season. Then, the transition to a more expensive summer blend of gasoline occurs — in New Jersey, that can start sometime in March.

"I do fully expect that most of the spring and summer we're going to see New Jersey prices over the $3 a gallon mark," De Haan said.

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There are some wild cards related to gas prices — both immediate and long-term — that analysts are watching and that could change forecasts.

While snow isn't typically a differentiator, extreme cold can impact operations at refineries. Brutal winter weather in the wrong region could cause refineries to shut down or reduce production.

The bigger question marks surround the nation's upcoming transition to a new leader.

Specifically, President-elect Donald Trump has proposed the implementation of a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico. He's also floated the idea, more than once, that Canada should join the U.S.

"The risk to oil prices is unknown, having a president that is saying a lot of different things, and it's hard to know whether he means them or not," De Haan said. "It certainly drives a little bit of fear of the unknown in the next couple of years, and it risks upsetting the status quo and potentially our relationships with oil producing countries and partners as well."

Trump is scheduled to be sworn in on Jan. 20.

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