Heavy snow, high winds, and coastal flooding are becoming more likely across New Jersey early next week.

Current watches, warnings, and advisories from the National Weather Service. (Blue=Winter Storm Watch)

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for 20 of New Jersey's 21 counties for Monday night into Tuesday. The lone exception that currently falls outside of the Watch: Cape May County.

A Winter Storm Watch serves as a "heads up" that winter weather impacts (usually 6+ inches of snow) could significantly impact travel within 24 to 48 hours. It's not a guarantee, but a pretty good bet. The Watch may be upgraded to a more serious, more urgent Winter Storm Warning (or possibly even a Blizzard Warning) tomorrow.

The NWS clearly waited for this afternoon's model suite to issue (with good reason). And I definitely see what they're seeing with the evolution of this late-season winter storm. It's clearly going to snow across New Jersey from Monday night into Tuesday. It's probably going to snow a lot.

I'm still doing the math on the snow total forecast, and I want to see at least one more model run before I share that publicly. (Check back Sunday morning.)

For now, just know that the urgency and expected severity of this winter storm has been officially kicked up another notch! We'll continue to keep you posted as this storm, and this forecast, continues to evolve.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. When he's not spending every waking hour staring at snow models, he's keeping you updated on the latest winter weather forecast. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.