Soggy Monday for NJ, with more unsettled weather on the way
Three separate rain chances will impact the Garden State over the coming week.
Good Monday morning, New Jersey! Before I jump into the weather forecast, allow me a moment to apologize for my absence from the New Jersey airwaves this morning. A recent death in the family has unfortunately pulled me away from this weather center on this active weather day. I'll try to check in as possible on Facebook and Twitter.
OK, now without further ado, here are your weather headlines for Monday, May 22, 2017...
Monday: Periods of Rain
The new workweek brings a new storm system, that we've been tracking since the middle of last week. I think the overall level of concern for flooding has decreased a bit. While this storm system will have a clear moisture connection to the Gulf of Mexico, models are not showing the "buckets" of rain they had suggested just a few days ago.
Monday is still going to be a wet day overall, with showers spreading from southeast to northwest through the morning. Periods of steadier rain and rumbles of thunder will be possible as well, from about mid-morning through mid-afternoon. Best chance for downpours will be in southern and central NJ (including the Jersey Shore), where rainfall totals may very well top an inch. Showers and sprinkles may continue through about Midnight Tuesday morning, before tapering off.
It's just going to be a damp, cool day — possibly a washout in some spots. Highs will be limited to the 60s for most of the state. If (and only if) you see a break in the rainfall and/or peek of sunshine, lower 70s are not out of the question.
Tuesday: Maybe Wet, Maybe Not?
Wow, this is literally a 50/50 coin flip. A storm system will either pass close to or directly on top of New Jersey on Tuesday. The NAM model shows almost a complete miss, with just a few showers over Cape May Tuesday evening. Meanwhile, the GFS model depicts a complete mess, with another round of steady to heavy rain centered on Tuesday afternoon.
This is one of those situations where I have to put a "chance" for rain and storms in the forecast, but it is by no means a guarantee. Let's get through Monday's soggy weather first, and then see how the models converge on Tuesday's rain potential.
Wednesday: Nicest Day of the Week?
Whatever happens on Tuesday, it looks like we'll be all done by Wednesday. In a complete departure from our forecasts over the week, I believe the drying trend on Wednesday could lead to some nice breaks of sun. Wednesday also looks like the warmest day of the week, with thermometers bouncing into the mid 70s for part of the state.
Thursday: Unsettled Again
Wednesday's welcome warmth and dry weather doesn't last long, unfortunately. Yet another storm system is set to turn Thursday back to the wet side. Showers may start pushing into the Garden State late Wednesday evening, with periods of light to moderate rain throughout Thursday. I don't think it's going to be a washout, and this setup does not look conducive to truly heavy rain. It just looks unsettled, all the way through early Friday morning.
Looking Ahead: The Memorial Day Weekend
I'd love to see a big dome of high pressure build in for the holiday weekend, guaranteeing perfect sunshine and mild temperatures.
Again, I'd love that. Ain't gonna happen, unfortunately.
Our weather looks to stay on the active side through Memorial Day, which will make this a tricky forecast. Having said that, we will see moments of brightness — particularly on Saturday, which looks like the nicest day for a BBQ (partly sunny, slight chance of a shower, highs around 70). Best chance of rain will be early Monday, particularly over South Jersey.
This weekend forecast has a lot of evolving to do. But there's been a pretty consistent trend so far regarding a nice Saturday transitioning to an unsettled Monday. Of course, our weather team will keep you posted on the latest developments as the week pushes forward!