Snow, ice, rain could make Monday’s commute messy in NJ

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the northern half of the Garden State from Monday to Tuesday, as a storm system looks to deliver a wintry mix of snow, ice, and rain.

Mother Nature won't be giving New Jersey much of a break, after this weekend's brutally cold temperatures and wind chills. Our next winter storm will move through the Garden State on Monday and Tuesday. It will not be a major winter storm for us. But this system will bring a mixed bag of wintry weather that could make things very slippery and pretty "icky" at times.

Timing

The first snowflakes from this system will probably arrive in South Jersey just after daybreak Monday. Most of New Jersey, however, will see quiet weather through about midday. Periods of moderate snow during the daytime hours on Monday will cause snow to accumulate a bit.

Eventually, as the system carries warmer air into New Jersey, the snow will transition to a wintry mix and then to all rain. At some point, we'll probably have snow in North Jersey, snow/sleet/freezing rain in Central Jersey, and rain in South Jersey. As you would probably guess, the timing of this transition will directly correspond to the amount of snow accumulation and/or ice accretion. For now, I'm thinking the changeover will begin around sunset on Monday, going to all rain by about midnight (give or take) Monday night.

Tuesday's high temperatures will be in the 50s statewide, so everything that falls from the sky will be rain. That rain could be heavy at times - especially Tuesday afternoon and evening - which means flooding may be an issue, especially for areas with significant snowpack and/or ice-blocked storm drains.

As temperatures drop Tuesday night, I could see a transition back to some light wintry mix to close out the storm. However, no additional accumulation is expected on the backside of this system. All rain/snow should end in the early morning hours on Wednesday.

Snow

As I mentioned above, any snow accumulation in New Jersey will be limited to Monday, as Tuesday will bring only rain. The heaviest snow totals from this storm will occur to our north and west. Sorry snow-lovers, we're just going to be too warm to see the biggest numbers from this one.

I'm thinking 1 to 3 inches of snow accumulation is possible throughout New Jersey. We'll be closer to the 3-inch benchmark in SW NJ (where the snow first begins) and in North Jersey (where the transition to rain happens later). Along the coast (especially the south coast), snow totals should be closer to 1 inch.

Ice

Even though snow totals are marginal, ice accretion could be a more serious problem for the Monday evening commute. The current forecast calls for about a tenth-of-an-inch of ice accumulation for part of New Jersey - that doesn't sound like a lot, but it really doesn't take much sleet and freezing rain to create a very icy, hazardous situation on the roads. I would be very careful about this icing threat on Monday, especially between I-80 and I-195.

Fortunately, the significant icing threat will be limited as warmer temperatures will cause a quick transition to all rain.

Rain

Hopefully you get the idea that this system is going to be a "mostly rain" event for New Jersey. Scattered periods of moderate to heavy rain on Tuesday could make driving tricky at times. I think an inch or two of rain is possible by Tuesday night.

I know what you're thinking: What if this storm brought us all snow, instead of changing over to rain? Double-digit snow totals. (That may very well happen around western Pennsylvania and New York.)

Advisory

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued by the National Weather Service from Monday morning through early Tuesday morning. This advisory is generally for areas along and north of the Route 1 corridor, including Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Morris, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, and Warren counties.

It's just an advisory - not a warning. Travel difficulties from slippery roads and limited visibility will be the primary issue from this storm.

I am sick as a dog with a stomach bug and unfortunately won't be on the radio Monday. But our team will provide full coverage through this minor winter weather event, and I'll be providing updates here on the web and on social media too.

Dan Zarrow is the Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.