Messy weather ends Monday, then temporarily turning tranquil
New Jersey wraps up a complicated storm system with rain and mild temperatures during the day Monday, before black ice becomes a problem Monday night.
We made it through the night, New Jersey! As strange a forecast as it was, temperatures warmed up right on schedule overnight. That forced a transition from snow to sleet/freezing rain to rain. I have seen reports of light icing (especially around Hunterdon County) and light snow accumulations (over an inch around Sussex County). But overall, we fared well for the Monday morning commute.
Of course, this storm system isn't done yet. As temperatures continue climbing through above-freezing territory Monday, pockets of moderate to heavy rain will continue streaming through the Garden State. Latest model guidance suggests rain will taper off in North Jersey by about 10 a.m. Monday, and in South Jersey by 3 p.m. I wouldn't be surprised if we're done in advance of these benchmarks - just want to be on the safe side. Breaks of sun will be possible by late Monday afternoon.
High temperatures be mild, ranging from the mid 40s in the north to the mid 50s in the south. A nice recovery from the weekend's chill!
Monday night, however, will bring a new challenge. As the vast majority of New Jersey (away from the coast) falls below freezing for several hours overnight, many puddles from Monday's rain will likely freeze over. So Tuesday morning's commute could be quite slick, and we'll have to be extra watchful for areas of black ice.
The rest of Tuesday will feature mostly cloudy skies and seasonably cool temperatures in the lower to mid 40s. A weak storm system is forecast to pass across New Jersey sometime between Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning. Depending on timing and temperatures and elevation, a round of light rain and/or snow showers will be possible. But forecast models seem to be lukewarm about the potential of this storm - GFS shows the precipitation to stay very light, while the latest Euro shows a "mostly miss" solution for NJ. Overall, this system and possible accumulations look to be inconsequential for the Garden State.
As weak high pressure influences our weather, Wednesday will be mostly to partly sunny. Lows will once again be limited to the lower 40s, with a bit of a breeze accompanying the seasonable cool temperatures.
And then? Oh boy. Another brutal blast of arctic air will cause temperatures to plummet for Thursday and Friday. By my math, we haven't seen December temperatures this cold since 2004.
Thursday will be windy and very cold, with high temperatures only in the mid 20s.
Thursday night will be bitterly cold, as low temperatures may drop into the single digits in North Jersey. Any breeze will be downright painful.
Friday will be equally frigid (if not moreso), with high temperatures in the lower to mid 20s.
This late-week cold air will set the table for another storm system rolling in for the weekend. A chance of snow/rain enters the forecast Saturday morning, and active weather could continue through Sunday as well. It's too early for details (snow vs. rain, potential accumulations, precise timeline, etc.) But we'll be watching this one throughout the week and updating you accordingly.